The Capital Governorate is the Most Trusted during July 2021

ARA Research & Consultancy has released its Consumer Confidence Index in Kuwait, for July 2021 in collaboration with Arab Times Newspaper and under the sponsorship of Lexus.

The General Index registered 101 points, losing one point in a month and adding 1 point on a yearly basis.

It is noteworthy that the Capital alone increased its previous monthly ratio by 32 points, as it scored 103 points, which is the highest rate among the research components during the month of July.

The stability of the General Index reveals a balance between the positive effects of the increase in oil prices and the expectations over the medium term for further rise in prices versus the negatives of the renewed spread of the pandemic in many developed oil-consuming countries, and the renewed fear of imposing harsh measures to fight the epidemic and its impact on the balance of supply and demand for fuel and thus a return to drop in prices.

There is no doubt that several positive factors helped to balance the level of confidence. Below are some of its headings in this context:

1. The State following up on the approval and implementation of many investment projects in energy, infrastructure and other fields.
2. Kuwait Stock Exchange achieving significant gains during the first half of the year, amounting to KD 5 billion, reflecting the extent of economic recovery achieved and stimulating various sectors to achieve further recovery.

Within these climates, citizens recorded a General Index rate of 102 points with the addition of three points, while Arab residents recorded only 99 points, decreasing seven points within a month.

Increased Confidence in the Economic Situation despite the Continuity of the Epidemic

Kuwait's support for OPEC's efforts to stabilize oil markets and recover the global economy reflects Kuwait's interest on the one hand and embodies the importance of oil prices in ensuring the financial and economic stability of the oil-exporting countries, especially those that depend decisively on oil based financial resources for their national income on the other hand.

Therefore, there is an organic link between oil revenues and the economic and financial conditions in those countries.

The research data during the month of July 2021 showed a significant increase in the level of confidence in the Current and Expected Economic Situation in Kuwait. This reality was reflected in the Current Economic Situation Index recording 88 points, by adding three points in a month and decreasing three points on an annual basis.

While the Expected Economic Situation Index increased to 114 points, boosting its previous monthly balance by 9 points.

The increased confidence in the Current and Expected Economic Situation Index reflects the current satisfaction, conviction and further confidence in the economy within most of the research components, thus embodying the positive reflection of the economic recovery and the activity of markets based on several factors, perhaps the most prominent of which are:

1. The increase and quasi stability of oil prices.
2. The Stock exchange gains that constitute a positive incentive for the various sectors and companies listed there.
3. The Future Generations Reserve Fund has been intact, despite the 2020-2021 budget deficit of nearly KD 10 billion, and the inability of current oil prices from reaching the budget’s break-even point.
4. The government’s program of approving and starting to implement 19 projects at a cost of about KD 19 billion, including 14 billion government projects and five partnership projects, as well as the movement of the real estate sector, which has achieved some relative recovery.

This current and future activity must have been an additional factor in increasing consumer confidence in the economic situation.

In this context, citizens gave a ratio of 87 points for the Current Economic Situation Index by adding two points and Arab residents 84 points by losing one point.

At the Regional Level:

The Capital increased its ratio to 117 points by adding 13 points, and Hawalli Governorate strengthened its ratio by 12 points, but on the other hand the rate of Al-Jahra Governorate decreased by 13 points and Al-Ahmadi Governorate by 9 points.

There was a 15-point decline in the rate of those with below intermediate level of education.

Also, the rate of those with higher salaries (monthly KD 2,250 – 2,849) decreased by 27 points within a month.

These are some of the Current Economic Situation Index ratios. As for the Expected Economic Situation Index, it earned the confidence of the overwhelming majority of respondents with 24 out of 27 components of the total research.

Noting that the rate of this index increased by 9 points, while the Capital’s rate increased by 31 points within a month, reflecting the solid confidence of the Capital in the economic conditions.

Confidence level varies between Current and Expected Personal Income Index

The Current Personal Income Index for July 2021 recorded a ratio of 86 points, down 11 points in a month, and adding four points compared to July 2020.

When analyzing the reasons for the loss of this rate 11 points in a month, a number of questions arise about the developments that forced the decline of this index during the phase of economic recovery, albeit gradually. Note that the main factors determining the value of income and its purchasing power have not changed.

The exchange rate of the Kuwaiti dinar and purchasing power are stable.

Annual monetary inflation remains within acceptable levels.

There have been no out-of-the-ordinary consumer price rises.

If we exclude the basic factors determining income and look at other aspects, the research data shows:

The tendency of the majority of research components to express their dissatisfaction with the current personal income levels, contrary to the stability of the Expected Personal Income Index.

Discrepancy among the components of the research between those who grant their confidence to the Index rate and those who are dissatisfied with it.

If we take a comprehensive look at the research categories, they can be sorted into three large categories; the first one being employees of the government and oil sector and large companies such as banks. This category enjoys stable incomes and job continuity.

The second category, employees of the private sector, where the disparities arise due to the varying conditions between one economic sector and another, and the extent to which it is affected by the repercussions of the pandemic.

The third category is the labor force in various sectors such as construction, industry, trade and others.

At the beginning of summer, when economic activity resumed in Kuwait, some sectors suffered from a shortage in expatriate workers, parts of which returned home to escape unemployment. In this period, due to the shortage of manpower, especially qualified ones, individual incomes rose on the basis of supply and demand. However, the balance returned to supply and demand during July and consequently some incomes declined and this reflected on the psychology of respondents.

In this atmosphere, citizens granted this index a ratio of 116 points by adding six points, while the rate of Arab residents decreased to 60 points with a loss of 18 points within a month.

At the regional level, the rate has decreased in: Al-Ahmadi Governorate by 29, Hawalli Governorate by 24, and the Capital by two points, and the rate of Mubarak Al-Kabeer Governorate increased by 27 points.

While the Expected Personal Income Index has stabilized at 104 points, armed with higher oil prices and further recovery of the Kuwaiti economy based on easing the mandatory measures to confront the pandemic.

The Increase in Current Employment Opportunities Index

The Current Employment Opportunities Index registered 132 points by adding three points in a month, thus occupying the best position among four rates in two years.

The notable increase in the rate of this Index was highlighted by the Capital governorate’s respondents by 35 points within a month.

It is necessary to look at this rate across different working categories to note a boost in confidence with the existence of vacancies among employees with high competencies and high salaries, unlike the category with education levels from intermediate to the lowest of the grades, i.e. unqualified labor, whereby its monthly rate decreased by six points.

The important conclusion regarding the size of current employment opportunities remains in the framework of following up on the implementation of the Kuwaitization Policy of the national workforce and reducing expenditures on the public sector. This requires:

Modernizing the economic structure to ensure the diversity of income sources, raise the level of productivity and encourage national workforce to engage in the private sector, and establish partnership companies between the public sector and private companies.

Preparing national cadres of employees, engineers, administrators and economists and qualifying them to develop economic structures on modern foundations is the basis for achieving the goals of the state and the government to expand and consolidate, and to facilitate the Kuwaitization of the workforce and increase the diversification of funding sources.

Personal Loans Jump to Their Highest Levels

The Purchase of Durable Goods Index stopped at a rate of 97 points, dropping 27 points compared to June 2021 and 3 points on an annual basis. Note that last June's ratio had jumped by 16 points.

It is normal that the level of consumption in Kuwait falls during July due to the travel cost of many citizens and their families abroad.

As for the factors that encourage the activity of the markets, they are present, whereby the volumes of personal loans have increased to their highest levels, as well as the Kuwaiti dinar retaining its purchasing power on the one hand, and the easing of precautionary measures in the face of the pandemic on the other hand.

Within this atmosphere, citizens granted the Purchasing Index a rate of 102 points, and Arab residents 85 points losing 18 points from their previous balance.

At the regional level, only the Capital recorded a positive rate and added 21 points within a month, while the rates of all the other governorates declined by high proportions:

Hawalli Governorate by 56 points, Mubarak Al-Kabeer Governorate by 50 points, Al-Ahmadi Governorate by 20 points, and Al-Jahra Governorate by 20 points.

These numbers prove the contraction in the volume of market activities during the summer.

It is necessary to follow the market movement activity during the coming months in order to determine its next course.

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